Weekly Investment & Economic Recap: 3.21.08

March 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was, the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended March 20, 2008.  If there is a harder working man in this country than Ben Bernanke, he should show himself now.  While academic/economist types are not typically known for their creativity, the Fed Chair has had those juices flowing lately by coming up with innovative idea after innovative idea in an attempt to save the economy from devastation (and preventing the onslaught of inflation in the process).  Of course, not everyone can be saved from collateral damage as Bear Stearns employees found out this week; but for the time being, investors seem to like the course in which the Fed is steering the economy. Equities rallied this week as more than a few bargains appeared.  Oil and gold prices fell for a change as speculators began to fear that the unbelievable (and unjustifiable) run in commodities may run have its course. The slightest bit of optimism returned as a few analysts even proclaimed that the worst of the financial crisis was now behind us (perhaps a bit premature, but the sentiment still rings nicely).  So enjoy the long holiday
weekend and come back Monday well-rested and ready for more of the same (wishful thinking).  And in the meantime. Go Horns.
Coming up in the week ahead:  Existing Home Sales (Monday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), New Home Sales (Wednesday), Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday), GDP (Thursday)

And That’s The Year That Was: 2007

January 5, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Attached (linked) please find “And That’s The ‘Year’ That Was”…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the period just ended December 31, 2007.  A year that started with so much promise could not have ended soon enough for many investors.  Heading into a presidential campaign season, eternal optimists were calling for a continuation of the bullish sentiment.  Oil prices were falling, the housing sector was primed for a rebound, incumbents were touting the strong economy, and opponents began pointing out how they could do better.  Then came Novastar, Accredited, New Century and a number of no-name mortgage lenders whose challenges served as a precursor for far greater problems among the nation’s largest financial institution.  The mortgage fiasco hit just as geopolitical turmoil prompted a rise (rather surge) in energy prices and once again the dreaded “I” word was creeping back into the water cooler conversation.  All the promise of the first half of the year suddenly disappeared by mid-summer and investors were fortunate to squeak out gains despite a woeful fourth quarter (and no Santa Claus rally).  Bernanke and friends remained busy throughout the past few months as the Fed attempted to balance the fears of recession with newfound threats of inflation.  So what are those incumbent/opposition politicos saying (or promising) now?

And That’s The Week That Was: 9.28.07

September 30, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended September 28, 2007. 

Has the world turned upside down (or right-side up)?  Suddenly what’s bad seems to be good.  What’s positive seems to be negative.  What’s strong seems to be weak.  (At least from an investor’s perspective.)  With the equity markets depicting a nice rebound in the aftermath of the Fed’s 50 bps downward move last week, investors seem to be eagerly awaiting the next policy meeting with hopes that Bernanke will do it again.  So, that means the economy must remains sluggish, the numbers should be weak, and inflation needs to stay under control.  Well, this week, investors seemed to get what they desired and most equity markets reacted accordingly.  Somehow, however, this convoluted way of thinking can’t last long-term (or can it?)  In any case, despite a shaky August, the quarter came to a close and the major indexes (sans small-cap) pushed higher during a highly volatile three-month period. 

Coming up in the week ahead:  ISM – Manu (Monday), ISM – Services (Wednesday), Unemployment/Payroll Additions (Friday)
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And That’s The Week That Was: 9.21.07

September 22, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended September 21, 2007.  Circle October 31 on your calendars.  That’s the day we next find out whether Bernanke and friends with provide a “trick” or a “treat” when it comes to future monetary policy.  The ink was barely dry on the latest Fed statement and already investors and economists began speculating about the next move.  Was this larger than expected 50 basis point rate cut a one-time deal?  Will this housing/subprime crisis warrant multiple cuts over multiple meetings?  Will those “unscrupulous” lenders reemerge now that the Fed has helped “bail” them out of certain financial woes?  Will skyrocketing oil prices lead to inflation, the old arch-nemesis of the Fed?  While investors praised the actions of the past week and many chose to put their money where their mouth is (OK…not the best grammar), few have any clues about the next move.  (Maybe Greenspan’s “The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World” can provide some answers.) 

Coming up in the week ahead:  Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), Existing Home Sales (Tuesday), GDP (Thursday), New Home Sales (Thursday), Personal Income/Spending (Friday)
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And That’s The Week That Was: 9.14.07

September 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended September 14, 2007.  To cut or not to cut?  By 25 bps or 50 bps?  Concerned about housing/subprime or oil prices and inflation?  These are just a few of the questions Bernanke will be asking his mighty men (and women) next week at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.  Another volatile (yet positive, for a change) week in the equity markets left investors with but (almost) two trading days before the intentions of the Fed are revealed.  And it can’t seem to get here soon enough.  Apple, Countrywide, and GM were all in the news this week, but no one really seemed to notice.  Investors have a one-track mind these days.  And Tuesday, they should get all the answers they have been seeking (though the accompanying statement may prompt a few new ones). 

Coming up in the week ahead:  PPI (Tuesday), Fed announcement (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), Housing Starts (Wednesday)
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