And That’s The Week That Was: 11.30.07

December 3, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended November 30, 2007.  So what do Donald Kohn and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority have in common (besides that fact that most people had not heard of either before the week began)?  Well, this week the Fed Vice Chair and the state-owned investment pool of Abu Dhabi became huge hits within the US investor community.  First, Citigroup received a much-needed injection of capital from its friends in the Middle East; and then a few well-time remarks by Kohn prompted Fed-watcher to predict another rate cut at the December meeting.  With oil prices falling from the previously high levels just below $100/barrel, equity investors rejoiced and sent the Dow into a few record-setting days.  The other indexes followed suits, though some sour news from techs (thanks Dell) sent the Nasdaq into a tailspin as the week came to a close.  Retailers got off to a solid start in the holiday season, though expectations are still mixed and a poor Sears earnings announcement did not help matters. 

Coming up in the week ahead:  ISM – Manu (Monday), Factory Orders (Wednesday), ISM – Services (Wednesday), Unemployment Rate (Friday), Nonfarm Payroll Additions (Friday) 

And That’s The Week That Was: 11.9.07

November 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended November 9, 2007.  Is it over yet?  Please tell me it has just been a bad dream?  Why doesn’t the stock market close for Veterans Day?  Needless to say, shell-shocked investors departed Friday asking many of these same questions.  For the week, the Dow plummeted by over 550 points or about four percent.  The Nasdaq plunged over six percent and the S&P 500 dropped by over 3.5 percent.  The small-cap Russell 2000 index now stands in negative territory for the year.  More subprime-related write-downs combined with some earnings warnings and a few negative predictions by the Fed Chair…and the equity freefall was on.  Retailers grew more fearful about their upcoming holiday season as the earlier than normal discounting failed to produce any dividends thus far.  With everyone and their brothers (mothers, fathers, in-laws, dogs) shying away from stocks, fixed income (and gold) investors reaped the rewards.   Oil soared on the ongoing supply concerns (and speculation that it will soon surge passed $100/barrell and just keep going).  And, a few renown (at least, once renown) Wall Street execs started retirement a tad sooner than expected.  Enjoy the weekend (and consider staying home for Veterans Day as well). 

Coming up in the week ahead:  PPI (Wednesday), Retail Sales (Wednesday), CPI (Thursday), Industrial Production (Friday)

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Blogs as Indicators of Sentiment

October 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Our pal Finbar is reporting today that many banks are issuing policy statements asking employees to refrain from making comments on blogs.  I don’t know if this is limited to the UK  or also prevelent here in the States as well.  From talking to many friends and colleagues at big banks here, I understand that many employees are already restricted from visiting many social media type web sites such as Facebook.  This is too bad.

Finbar makes the keen insight that “Markets live on rumour, denial and false hopes and blogs are the best way to get a feel for the true market sentiment.”  I believe the same and I know there are a number of companies out there who are attempting to capture, qualify and quantify that sentiment to advantage.  Does any body know which firms these are?  I’d like to get a better handle on how they do this and how accurate their indicators are.

As Finbar points out,  ”the markets are happy at the moment but the blogs are not; market corrections take time.”
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And That’s The Week That Was: 10.19.07

October 22, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended October 19, 2007.  First the good news…at least the Dow didn’t plummet 23% today (like it did 20 years ago).  And now the bad news…366 points and a 2.6% decline ain’t nothing to sneeze about (especially on the fifth straight down market day of the week).  With oil prices climbing through the proverbial roof (for no real reason…besides ongoing turmoil in and around Iraq), investors needed something positive to sink their teeth into.  Unfortunately some weak (though expected) earnings reports by financial services companies (and others) sent them looking for the safe-haven of the treasury markets.  Dr. B. and Treasury Secretary Hank confirmed that housing won’t be improving anytime soon.  Oh well…in 1987, the Dow close at 1,738.74…today it stands at 13,522.  (How’s that for a bright side?) 

Coming up in the week ahead:  Existing Home Sales (Wednesday), New Home Sales (Thursday)

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And That’s The Week That Was

July 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment

And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended July 27, 2007.  How can investor sentiment change so much so quickly?  Just a week ago, the Dow and S&P 500 stood around all-time highs, and double-digits annual gains for the major indexes seemed like a foregone conclusion.  Enter…a couple of surprising earnings announcements (thanks Countrywide), and now a new dark cloud suddenly hovers over Wall Street.  (That’s what the worst week in five years will do for you.)  For a change, investors are suddenly noticing the never-ending housing woes and contemplating the impact that the subprime (and even prime) mortgage fiasco can have on the overall economy and markets.  Just don’t throw in the towel so quickly.  Go home; rest up; read about the GDP in the 2^nd quarter; and remember the bright spots investors were touting just last week.  Things couldn’t have possibly changed that much that quickly?  Or could they?

Coming up in the week ahead: ISM Manufacturing (Wed), Unemployment Rate (Friday), ISM Services (Friday)

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