Weekly Investmtent & Economic Recap: 4.4.08

April 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was, the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended April 4, 2008.  So the books on the dismal 1st quarter 2008 are officially closed (and not soon enough) and investors seem intent on moving past the recent negativity. Though financial (more write-downs) and economic (weak housing, manufacturing, services, labor) news highlighted the week, the markets moved higher as investors looked at the carnage of the past three months and found some value in equities.  Bernanke stood up nicely to the heat as he was grilled by a finger-pointing Congress over his role in the JP Morgan/Bear Stearns transaction.  Paulson set out to reform the entire financial regulatory system, though he knows he will be long since retired (or back on Wall Street) before any of his proposals are approved/rejected.  The new quarter is off to the races and many investors believe the worst of the news is behind us.  Let’s hope the newfound optimism lasts (despite the  continued talks of recession.  Sorry, just a friendly reminder). 

Coming up in the week ahead:  Construction Spending (Tuesday), ISM - Manufacturing (Tuesday), ISM - Services (Thursday), Unemployment Rate (Friday), Nonfarm Payroll Additions (Friday)

Weekly Investment & Economic Recap: 3.21.08

March 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was, the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended March 20, 2008.  If there is a harder working man in this country than Ben Bernanke, he should show himself now.  While academic/economist types are not typically known for their creativity, the Fed Chair has had those juices flowing lately by coming up with innovative idea after innovative idea in an attempt to save the economy from devastation (and preventing the onslaught of inflation in the process).  Of course, not everyone can be saved from collateral damage as Bear Stearns employees found out this week; but for the time being, investors seem to like the course in which the Fed is steering the economy. Equities rallied this week as more than a few bargains appeared.  Oil and gold prices fell for a change as speculators began to fear that the unbelievable (and unjustifiable) run in commodities may run have its course. The slightest bit of optimism returned as a few analysts even proclaimed that the worst of the financial crisis was now behind us (perhaps a bit premature, but the sentiment still rings nicely).  So enjoy the long holiday
weekend and come back Monday well-rested and ready for more of the same (wishful thinking).  And in the meantime. Go Horns.
Coming up in the week ahead:  Existing Home Sales (Monday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), New Home Sales (Wednesday), Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday), GDP (Thursday)

Weekly Economic & Investment Recap: 2.15.08

February 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was, the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended February 15, 2008. As the campaign season heats up, more Americans seem to be getting the fever and are even tuning into Congressional hearings for a look at our political system at its “finest.”  (Of course, that newfound interest only occurs when such hearings are simulcast on ESPN.)  While Clemens/McNamee may have garnered much of Congress’ attention of the week, Paulson/Bernanke testified before the Senate and shared their (increasingly negative) views on the economy (though their statements were not highlighted on SportsCenter).
Stocks rose early in the week as W. signed that stimulus package into law, but gave back some ground once the over-analysis of the testimonies began (Bernanke’s not Clemens’).  Some surprising retail results brought about a tad more optimism about future consumer activity, though the naysayers still seem to outnumber and a late week sentiment index fell to levels not seen in 16 years.  Earnings season continued with mixed results and Hugo made some idle threats to the domestic energy sector. 

Next week, Americans will have another opportunity to get in the political spirit with a celebration of our past presidents (that probably will not be covered on ESPN).

Weekly Economics & Investment Recap: 2.1.08

February 3, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended February 1, 2008.  Continued weakness in housing (no problem).  Plunging consumer confidence (why worry?).  Growing unemployment (so what).  Poor earnings (big deal).  Record write-downs (no biggee).  After all, Dr. Bernanke has our backs.  Apparently, these days, the Fed has the tonic for all that ails the country as the 50 bps move (in the immediate aftermath of the surprising 75 bps cut last week) brought out the “high fives” among investors.  These days, every time Dr. B. so much as sneezes, he makes national news and the markets react.  (If only the State of the Union would have garnered similar ratings.)   Well, a weak January has come to a close and investors can now move on with hopes for bigger and better things.  (Now, from a market perspective, who are we supposed to root for in the Super Bowl again?) 

Coming up in the week ahead:  Factory Orders (Monday), ISM – Services (Tuesday), Consumer Credit (Friday)

And That’s The Week That Was: 12.14.07

December 14, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended December 14, 2007.  So, which report was more widely read this week: the summary of the Fed’s policy meeting or the Mitchell report on steroid use in baseball?  While Dr. Bernanke probably had a better week than Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, he caught a bit of grief from investors who thought that a larger rate cut was in order.  As the week progressed, the major inflation releases brought new fears that the surge in oil prices is starting to work its way through other sectors of the economy.  The subprime debacle continued though one major investment firm seemed to benefit from others’ misfortunes.  Most equity indexes fell this week and suddenly those positive gains for the full year are no longer foregone conclusions (particularly among small-caps).  Likewise, fixed income securities lost value as investors tried to understand the ramification of a Fed liquidity plan.  Now, is HGH banned at the New York Stock Exchange? 

Coming up in the week ahead:  Housing Starts (Tuesday), GDP (Thursday), Personal Income/Spending (Friday)

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And That’s The Week That Was: 12.7.07

December 7, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended December 7, 2007.  This week, President Bush did his best Superman, Batman and even Underdog imitations (anyone know his motto?), by announcing a plan to “bail out” the most unsophisticated of subprime mortgage borrowers and many (greedy) financial institutions.  (Of course, the term “bailout” may not be the most appropriate description since his Administration is not in the business of Federal handouts.)  With investors basking in the collective glow that someone is finally doing something to help remedy the situation, all eyes will be on Bernanke and friends who meet next week to set monetary policy for the last time in 2007.  It’s been quite a roller coaster ride this year, hasn’t it Dr. B.?  Do you have a nice holiday offering in the form of a (larger than expected) rate cut? 

Coming up in the week ahead:  Fed Policy Meeting Statement (Tuesday), Retail Sales (Thursday), PPI (Thursday), CPI (Friday)

And That’s The Week That Was: 9.28.07

September 30, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended September 28, 2007. 

Has the world turned upside down (or right-side up)?  Suddenly what’s bad seems to be good.  What’s positive seems to be negative.  What’s strong seems to be weak.  (At least from an investor’s perspective.)  With the equity markets depicting a nice rebound in the aftermath of the Fed’s 50 bps downward move last week, investors seem to be eagerly awaiting the next policy meeting with hopes that Bernanke will do it again.  So, that means the economy must remains sluggish, the numbers should be weak, and inflation needs to stay under control.  Well, this week, investors seemed to get what they desired and most equity markets reacted accordingly.  Somehow, however, this convoluted way of thinking can’t last long-term (or can it?)  In any case, despite a shaky August, the quarter came to a close and the major indexes (sans small-cap) pushed higher during a highly volatile three-month period. 

Coming up in the week ahead:  ISM – Manu (Monday), ISM – Services (Wednesday), Unemployment/Payroll Additions (Friday)
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And That’s The Week That Was: 9.21.07

September 22, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended September 21, 2007.  Circle October 31 on your calendars.  That’s the day we next find out whether Bernanke and friends with provide a “trick” or a “treat” when it comes to future monetary policy.  The ink was barely dry on the latest Fed statement and already investors and economists began speculating about the next move.  Was this larger than expected 50 basis point rate cut a one-time deal?  Will this housing/subprime crisis warrant multiple cuts over multiple meetings?  Will those “unscrupulous” lenders reemerge now that the Fed has helped “bail” them out of certain financial woes?  Will skyrocketing oil prices lead to inflation, the old arch-nemesis of the Fed?  While investors praised the actions of the past week and many chose to put their money where their mouth is (OK…not the best grammar), few have any clues about the next move.  (Maybe Greenspan’s “The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World” can provide some answers.) 

Coming up in the week ahead:  Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), Existing Home Sales (Tuesday), GDP (Thursday), New Home Sales (Thursday), Personal Income/Spending (Friday)
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And That’s The Week That Was: 9.14.07

September 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Attached/linked please find And That’s The Week That Was…the Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended September 14, 2007.  To cut or not to cut?  By 25 bps or 50 bps?  Concerned about housing/subprime or oil prices and inflation?  These are just a few of the questions Bernanke will be asking his mighty men (and women) next week at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.  Another volatile (yet positive, for a change) week in the equity markets left investors with but (almost) two trading days before the intentions of the Fed are revealed.  And it can’t seem to get here soon enough.  Apple, Countrywide, and GM were all in the news this week, but no one really seemed to notice.  Investors have a one-track mind these days.  And Tuesday, they should get all the answers they have been seeking (though the accompanying statement may prompt a few new ones). 

Coming up in the week ahead:  PPI (Tuesday), Fed announcement (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), Housing Starts (Wednesday)
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